Hazard Risk Scenarios

HAZARD RISK SCENARIO AND
PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS

Multi Risk Scenario

Identified Hazards for Planning Assumptions: Flood, fire outbreak, Ethno-Religious/political crises.

Best Case Scenario

The best-case scenario is that though flooding occurs annually in most communities, the effects are considerably mild with respect to loss of lives.

Most Probable Scenario

Flood in the State affects about 3,000 persons covering 11 LGAs

Worst Case Scenario

Massive loss of lives, destruction of farmlands and property, displacement of people covering the whole state i.e 23 lGAs

Scenarios and Planning Assumptions

Flood

Probability of Occurrence
Highly probable, based on meteorological information and heavy rain falls in addition to other human/nature induced activities.

Conflicts
(Ethno-Religious/Political and Nomads/farmers conflicts)

Probability of Occurrence
Highly probable based on the activities of herdsmen political and nomads/farmers crises.

Fire Outbreak
and other health issues/events

Probability of Occurrence
Highly probable, based on the recent outbreak of cholera and measles and most especially the COVID-19 Pandemic

Impact

• 25,000 people likely to be affected
• Loss of lives
• Road networks destroyed
• Farmlands flooded
• Destruction of infrastructure (security infrastructure, schools, houses, health facilities etc)
• Displacement

• Pollution of water sources
• Disease epidemics: Cholera, measles, diarrhoea diseases etc.
• Shortage of Food
• Loss of livelihoods
• Loss of Shelter
• Traumatisation

Geographical Areas

Flood

Flood is prevalent in Kaduna North, Kaduna South, Kachia, Soba, Zaria, Sabon Gari, Chikun, Kubau, Ikara, Igabi, Kaura and Kajuru

Ethno-religious/ political unrest

Kafanchan, Kaduna South, Kaduna North, Zaria, Igabi, Jaba, Kaura, Soba, Zangon Kataf

Hazards, Triggers, Early Warning and Monitoring Agencies

Hazards	Triggers, Early Warning monitoring indicators	Relevant Agencies
Above normal (heavy) Rainfall	Weather forecasts, Information flow on the rainy season, observation of rise in river level	NIMET, SMoAgric, NIHSA, RUWASA
Release of water from natural and artificial Impoundments	Alert warning from river basins, alert from EW mechanisms	River Basin Authorities: NIWA, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture
Inter/intra ethnic conflict	Politicking, nomads/ farmers conflict tribal/ethno and Religious conflicts.	Security Agencies: Police, Civil Defence, DSS, Military
Human Induced	Fire outbreak, road traffic accident, industrial gas leakages and Explosion	SMoH, SMoEnv, KEPA, SEMA