HAZARD RISK SCENARIO AND
PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS
Multi Risk Scenario
Identified Hazards for Planning Assumptions: Flood, fire outbreak, Ethno-Religious/political crises.
Best Case Scenario
The best-case scenario is that though flooding occurs annually in most communities, the effects are considerably mild with respect to loss of lives.
Most Probable Scenario
Flood in the State affects about 3,000 persons covering 11 LGAs
Worst Case Scenario
Massive loss of lives, destruction of farmlands and property, displacement of people covering the whole state i.e 23 lGAs
Scenarios and Planning Assumptions
Flood
Probability of Occurrence
Highly probable, based on meteorological information and heavy rain falls in addition to other human/nature induced activities.
Conflicts
(Ethno-Religious/Political and Nomads/farmers conflicts)
Probability of Occurrence
Highly probable based on the activities of herdsmen political and nomads/farmers crises.
Fire Outbreak
and other health issues/events
Probability of Occurrence
Highly probable, based on the recent outbreak of cholera and measles and most especially the COVID-19 Pandemic
Impact
- 25,000 people likely to be affected
- Loss of lives
- Road networks destroyed
- Farmlands flooded
- Destruction of infrastructure (security infrastructure, schools, houses, health facilities etc)
- Displacement
- Pollution of water sources
- Disease epidemics: Cholera, measles, diarrhoea diseases etc.
- Shortage of Food
- Loss of livelihoods
- Loss of Shelter
- Traumatisation
Geographical Areas
Flood
Flood is prevalent in Kaduna North, Kaduna South, Kachia, Soba, Zaria, Sabon Gari, Chikun, Kubau, Ikara, Igabi, Kaura and Kajuru
Ethno-religious/ political unrest
Kafanchan, Kaduna South, Kaduna North, Zaria, Igabi, Jaba, Kaura, Soba, Zangon Kataf
Hazards, Triggers, Early Warning and Monitoring Agencies
Hazards | Triggers, Early Warning monitoring indicators | Relevant Agencies |
---|---|---|
Above normal (heavy) Rainfall | Weather forecasts, Information flow on the rainy season, observation of rise in river level | NIMET, SMoAgric, NIHSA, RUWASA |
Release of water from natural and artificial Impoundments | Alert warning from river basins, alert from EW mechanisms | River Basin Authorities: NIWA, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture |
Inter/intra ethnic conflict | Politicking, nomads/ farmers conflict tribal/ethno and Religious conflicts. | Security Agencies: Police, Civil Defence, DSS, Military |
Human Induced | Fire outbreak, road traffic accident, industrial gas leakages and Explosion | SMoH, SMoEnv, KEPA, SEMA |