Multi Risk Scenario

Identified Hazards for Planning Assumptions: Flood, fire outbreak, Ethno-Religious/political crises.

Best Case Scenario

The best-case scenario is that though flooding occurs annually in most communities, the effects are considerably mild with respect to loss of lives.

Most Probable Scenario

Flood in the State affects about 3,000 persons covering 11 LGAs

Worst Case Scenario

Massive loss of lives, destruction of farmlands and property, displacement of people covering the whole state i.e 23 lGAs

Scenarios and Planning Assumptions


Probability of Occurrence
Highly probable, based on meteorological information and heavy rain falls in addition to other human/nature induced activities.

(Ethno-Religious/Political and Nomads/farmers conflicts)

Probability of Occurrence
Highly probable based on the activities of herdsmen political and nomads/farmers crises.

Fire Outbreak
and other health issues/events

Probability of Occurrence
Highly probable, based on the recent outbreak of cholera and measles and most especially the COVID-19 Pandemic


Geographical Areas


Flood is prevalent in Kaduna North, Kaduna South, Kachia, Soba, Zaria, Sabon Gari, Chikun, Kubau, Ikara, Igabi, Kaura and Kajuru

Ethno-religious/ political unrest

Kafanchan, Kaduna South, Kaduna North, Zaria, Igabi, Jaba, Kaura, Soba, Zangon Kataf

Hazards, Triggers, Early Warning and Monitoring Agencies

Hazards Triggers, Early Warning monitoring indicators Relevant Agencies
Above normal (heavy) Rainfall Weather forecasts, Information flow on the rainy season, observation of rise in river level NIMET, SMoAgric, NIHSA, RUWASA
Release of water from natural and artificial Impoundments Alert warning from river basins, alert from EW mechanisms River Basin Authorities: NIWA, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture
Inter/intra ethnic conflict Politicking, nomads/ farmers conflict tribal/ethno and Religious conflicts. Security Agencies: Police, Civil Defence, DSS, Military
Human Induced Fire outbreak, road traffic accident, industrial gas leakages and Explosion SMoH, SMoEnv, KEPA, SEMA